《科创板日报》7月24日讯（记者 陈俊清） 在AI资本开支沿着“算力需求—芯片与存储—晶圆厂扩产—设备采购—核心部件”这一链条逐级传导的背景下，半导体设备景气度将会如何进行传导以及能够持续多久？结构性繁荣取代全面普涨的局面，其中哪些设备环节将率先获得规模订单？核心部件已成为瓶颈中的瓶颈，那么国产化窗口究竟有多大？

These issues have become topics of current investor attention.

近日，由中国科技发展基金会青年科学家产学研创新联合体等主办的半导体设备与核心部件研讨沙龙在上海市长宁区举行，来自产业链人士以及券商研究人士就上述话题展开了深入讨论。

多数业内人士普遍认为，未来三年全球半导体设备市场规模有望借助行业发展的推动，从1万亿元逐步扩容至2万亿元，而本轮行业高景气周期预计将会维持3至5年。晶圆厂持续进行扩产并叠加技术迭代，使得各类半导体设备均得以迎来增量发展空间。叠加设备整机订单高速增长、设备企业补库需求得到释放、国产替代持续抢占全球份额这三重驱动因素，上游核心零部件行业的景气弹性将高于设备整机赛道。

Global semiconductor equipment market is expected to double within three years, with upstream components facing potential shortages that exceed expectations.

据SEMI（国际半导体产业协会）发布的最新预测，全球半导体设备销售额将在2026年达到1659亿美元（约合人民币1.12万亿元），同比增长23.2%。SEMI预计2028年将达2295亿美元（约合人民币1.55万亿元），创历史新高，2026-2028三年复合年增长率达19.44%，连续五年增长。

Compared to industry forecasts, the views of the attendees were even more optimistic. According to estimates by industry investors who focus on semiconductor equipment components, the global semiconductor equipment market has maintained an annualized growth rate of 5-10 percent over the past two to three decades, with the current overall scale standing at approximately 120 billion to 130 billion US dollars. Driven by AI demand, this market is expected to double in size over the next three years to reach a scale of 2 trillion US dollars. Should the long-term billion-dollar semiconductor investment plans of countries such as South Korea be implemented, the growth elasticity of global equipment demand would be further amplified.

ASML, a leading figure in the global equipment industry chain, is currently driving expansion in its own operations. The company plans to increase capacity by 30 percent in 2027 based on its 2026 capacity planning of approximately 65 low-numerical-aperture EUV machines and is already studying a further 30 percent increase in 2028. At the same time, the company plans to increase capacity by 30 percent in 2027 based on its 2026 capacity planning of approximately 130 immersion DUV machines and is already studying a further 30 percent increase in 2028.

ASML has laid out its expansion plans for the next two years, aiming for a 30 percent increase each year. This pace essentially follows a doubling of the entire global production capacity within three years. The whole semiconductor industry chain is now making preparations to align with this target.

Domestic market growth space is even more prominent. A securities firm analyst at the meeting pointed out that the domestic semiconductor capital expenditure has consistently accounted for 35 to 40 percent of the global total in the past. If this share were to be maintained through the current cycle, the corresponding domestic annual equipment market size would reach 150 billion dollars in the coming years, which would equate to the current global market scale.

国内市场的特殊性在于，除了行业总量实现增长之外，还具备国产化率持续提升的内在逻辑。其表示，当前国内高端设备环节的国产化率尚不足30%，而在未来三年内有望提升至40%至50%的水平，叠加市场总量的扩张因素，国内头部设备企业的订单年复合增速有望达到60%至80%。

景气度沿产业链自上而下传导的过程中，上游核心零部件正成为最紧张的环节之一，短缺程度与持续时间均超出市场此前预期。

与会人士判断，半导体设备零部件的景气弹性显著高于设备整机。其增长逻辑来自三重叠加：设备订单高增长的基础带动、设备厂商补库存的需求放大，以及国产替代加速的份额提升。也正因如此，本轮周期中零部件的供需矛盾比设备端更为突出。

会上，业内人士分享了近期产业调研。其表示，原本市场普遍预计零部件紧缺将在今年年底显现，但实际上从今年4月开始，多家零部件厂商就已经收到海外供应商交期拉长的通知，部分品类甚至已经出现缺货。

更具标志性的信号是，两年前还在清理产能的海外设备厂商，现已主动联系苏州等国内城市的零部件企业，寻求供应链补充。

晶圆厂扩产周期通常在1.5至2年之间，比设备厂商的产能建设周期更长。这使得设备厂有足够时间进行准备工作。然而更上游的零部件厂商在扩产决策上要谨慎得多。上述产业投资人表示，很多海外零部件企业对AI需求持续性存在疑问，因此不愿大规模投入扩产。叠加部分高精密零部件扩产本身工艺复杂、周期长，最终导致零部件环节的产能弹性远低于下游设备厂，供需缺口将持续存在。

这一判断得到了设备厂商的印证。国内某头部半导体设备厂商负责人表示，去年四季度以来公司订单进入爆发期，当前最核心的两大制约因素就是人和零部件。他指出，去年公司全年人员增速约为10%，而今年公司的人员增长目标上调至50%以上。他表示，人才缺口是全行业的共性问题。

零部件端的压力显得更为直接。上述人士透露，当前海外零部件厂商的产能基本上已经被海外头部设备厂商所占据，因此无法再满足国内厂商的增量订单需求，部分日企供应商甚至直接表示无法承接翻倍的订单需求。“零部件的增速必须高于设备增速，因为我们还要补库存、做备货。过去两年行业下行期我们在去库存，现在进入补库周期，零部件的需求弹性比设备本身更大。”

值得注意的是，海外供应链紧张正为国内零部件厂商开辟出海窗口。与会的国内某零部件厂商负责人表示，近一个月以来，已有多家设备商主动找上门来寻求在国内配套模块。“以前是我们主动出海拓展，现在是海外客户主动来谈，核心原因就是他们本土供应链跟不上，同时也有降本的需求。”

3D stacking and advanced packaging open a new growth curve while detection demand rises further.

除了总量扩张之外，技术路线的变革正在为半导体设备产业创造全新的增量市场，成为与会人士热议的另一核心话题。

Several technology experts believe that the evolution of the traditional planar process has approached the physical limit, with the naming significance of process nodes below 7 nm gradually surpassing the actual physical gains. From 5 nm to 3 nm, the area of the chip logic portion has only shrunk by 5 percent to 10 percent, while the improvement in performance and power consumption has also narrowed, but the research and manufacturing costs have increased substantially, and the marginal benefits of Moore's Law are decreasing.

在此背景下，3D堆叠技术成为延续性能提升的重要路径，也被业内视为国内在先进制程受限背景下的破局方向。

在晶圆堆叠方面，通过多层晶圆堆叠的方式，可以用成熟制程等效出先进制程的晶体管密度。

据透露，国内头部手机厂有可能在下半年发布的下一代旗舰机型当中落地相关3D堆叠技术的旗舰芯片，如果验证成功，那么未来该技术将逐步向大算力芯片领域延伸。

先进封装设备是最直接受益的赛道。与会的国内键合设备厂商相关人士表示，2.5D以及3D先进封装是当前AI芯片的刚需，而芯片与芯片直接互联的键合工艺则是3D堆叠的终局技术路线。虽然当前键合设备的市场体量还不大，但阿斯麦、应用材料等全球龙头都已经纷纷入局，这足见其战略价值。

该人士介绍，目前国内某头部存储厂商3D NAND产线的键合良率已达99.9%以上，并已实现了规模化量产，而未来3D NAND向千层堆叠演进时，需要通过两次键合工艺实现，这将进一步拉动键合设备的需求。除此之外，配套的晶圆减薄、打孔、量测测试设备也都会迎来显著的增量空间。

硅光领域同样迎来扩产高峰。与会外资厂商代表透露，当前全球范围内22nm逻辑和硅光产线正在大规模扩产，对光芯片测试以及先进制程工艺设备的需求正快速放量，交期持续拉长。

第三方检测机构的视角也印证了技术升级所带来的设备增量。国内某半导体检测设备厂商相关人士表示，先进制程和先进封装的工艺复杂度大幅提升，失效成本和验证频率显著增加，带动了良率提升、量测分析类设备的需求增长。而国产设备的导入仍需时间，多数客户仍先在研发产线验证，通常需要半年以上的验证周期才会导入量产线。

In view of the cycle length, the research participants at the meeting judged that the supply and demand gap in semiconductor equipment will persist far beyond market expectations. The capital expenditures of the most downstream AI cloud providers enjoy extremely high return rates, with overseas technology giants still accelerating their upward trajectory in capital spending, and TSMC has already initiated another round of price hikes. Consequently, the supply and demand tensions in the equipment segment will very likely continue through 2030. The securities research participants indicated that the farther upstream one goes in the component segment, the stronger the supply rigidity becomes, and the longer the boom cycle will last.

Despite the window having opened, multiple industry figures acknowledge that domestic semiconductor equipment components truly gaining a foothold in the supply chain still requires overcoming two core hurdles: long-term reliability and foundational material capabilities.

当前国产零部件的功能参数并不难验证，但是真正的差距在于十年的维度上的可靠性。海外一线品牌的机械手电厂能够使用十年才需要大修，而国产产品价格可能只有一半，但是三年就需要维护一次，单次维护成本达到售价的三成，全生命周期成本反而更高。

更深层的壁垒藏在基础材料领域。多位与会人士提到，国内零部件的差距最终往往追溯到材料层面，轴承寿命不足的根源在于钢材的热处理工艺差距，减速机耐用性不够的核心是特种润滑油脂的配方短板，而抛光液、分散剂等耗材其核心成分占比极低几乎无法通过逆向分析破解，在材料领域这些看不见的配方和工艺才是真正需要花十年甚至二十年去突破的深水区。

尽管挑战重重，但与会人士普遍认为，本轮周期为国产零部件打开的市场窗口是历史上规模最大、确定性最高的一次，其增量来自本土替代与全球出海两大维度。

在内需市场，国产替代已从政策驱动转向自发驱动。
一方面，长鑫科技、长江存储以及中芯国际等头部生产企业为保障供应链安全正积极开展验证导入本土零部件。
另一方面，国内设备企业主动下场扶持供应链，通过产业投资、联合研发以及优先验证等方式加速零部件国产化。
据透露，国内某头部设备厂通过自身及旗下产业基金投资了20余家零部件企业。

对于行业担忧的“内卷”问题 ，多数观点认为当前无需过度担心。“全球市场空间足够大，且国产替代仍在中前期，国内头部企业的产品侧重各有不同，竞争更接近海外应用材料、泛林半导体的良性格局。彼此有交叉，但核心是共同做大国产供应链的蛋糕，而非陷入低价恶性竞争。”

Overall, the current global semiconductor expansion cycle marks the key window period for China's component industry to transition from domestic markets to global ones. The short-term supply-demand gap offers enterprises opportunities to enter the supply chain, but truly standing firm in the global supply chain still requires overcoming the long slope of reliability and material process.

来源：AI资本开支猛增下 半导体设备与零部件迎来哪些机遇？这场沙龙给出一线研判 | 财联社