德银：微软AI商业化进入兑现期 Azure与Copilot撑起新增长曲线
财联社7月31日讯（编辑夏军雄） 微软最新发布的财报揭示了巨额人工智能投入所带来的显著成果并非仅限于资本开支以及成本压力，其也能逐步转化为云计算收入软件订阅增长以及更高的客户支出。
德意志银行在30日发布的研报中指出，微软2026财年第四财季（自然年第二季度）业绩展现出明显的“全栈”AI优势。底层Azure算力需求持续超过供给，开发工具GitHub Copilot消费收入超预期，应用层M365 Copilot付费席位则从上一季度的超过2000万个增至超过3000万个。与此同时，公司仍然维持较高的经营利润率。
Based on the commercial prospects of AI, the accelerating growth in Azure and M365, and the performance of profit margins, Deutsche Bank maintained its buy rating on Microsoft with a target price of 550 dollars, equivalent to an approximately 25 times forward non-GAAP earnings per share price-to-earnings ratio for the 2027 fiscal year.
Microsoft reported fourth-quarter revenue of 90 billion dollars, exceeding the midpoint of its previous guidance by 3.2 percent, with every business segment achieving above-expected results. At constant exchange rates, revenue increased 17 percent compared to the prior quarter's 15 percent and accelerated further; full-year revenue for fiscal 2026 exceeded 3310 billion dollars at constant exchange rates with 16 percent growth.
分业务来看，生产力与业务流程部门营收达到378.47亿美元，同比增长14.3%；智能云部门营收达到393.06亿美元，同比增长31.6%；更多个人计算业务营收达到128.54亿美元，同比增长4.4%下降，但仍显著好于公司及市场此前预期。
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Microsoft reports commercial remaining performance obligations of 678 billion dollars, up 84 percent year over year. All of the quarter-on-quarter growth comes from customers outside of frontier model providers, indicating that AI and cloud demand is spreading to a wider range of traditional enterprises. This metric has a weighted average term of 2.3 years, with about 30 percent expected to be recognized as revenue in the next 12 months, and that amount grows 37 percent.
Azure增速升至43%
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（2023年以来，Azure季度收入增速趋势）
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Microsoft stated that, regardless of workload, customer type, or geography, Azure demand exceeded supply. The company not only needs to meet demand from external cloud customers but also needs to allocate computing power for its own AI products and internal research and development teams and replace servers and other equipment that have reached the end of their service life.
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Copilot突破3000万席位
生产级AI应用除了模型本身之外，还需要上下文、记忆、工具调用、行动空间、安全护栏以及治理框架。微软提供了广泛的云端模型目录，同时还掌握了Azure基础设施、开发平台、数据服务以及企业应用，因此能够在底层模型不断变化的情况下继续占据平台层。
AI投入拖累毛利率，但经营效率保持韧性
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自由现金流面临阶段性压力
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Microsoft adjusted the capital expenditure guidance for the 2026 fiscal year from about 190 billion dollars to about 175 billion dollars. This change does not indicate an actual reduction in investment. The primary reason is that the company extended the expected useful life of data centers and office buildings from 15 years to 25 years. As a result more data center leases are being converted from finance leases to operating leases and the latter are generally not included in capital expenditures.
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高资本开支仍将是市场持续关注的风险。
Deutsche Bank expects Microsoft’s operating cash flow in fiscal 2027 to reach approximately 215.7 billion dollars, with capital expenditure including capital leases at approximately 214.9 billion dollars, and the levered free cash flow possibly declining to approximately 47 billion dollars. By fiscal 2028, with the expansion of revenue, the levered free cash flow is expected to recover to approximately 184 billion dollars.
展望
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但这一逻辑仍需接受两项检验：一是巨额资本开支能否持续转化为高增长收入，二是毛利率和自由现金流能否在基础设施扩张后逐渐企稳。
德银列出的主要风险包括AI以及公共云竞争加剧以及宏观环境恶化而微软在庞大收入基数上维持高增长的难度。
来源：海外研选 | 德银：微软AI商业化进入兑现期 Azure与Copilot撑起新增长曲线 | 财联社
