AI驱动半导体产业资本开支上行，半导体设备开启新一轮成长周期
财联社7月29日讯，昨日市场全天震荡调整，三大指数低开低走。黄白线分化明显，权重股走弱。沪深两市成交额2.03万亿。从板块来看，脑机接口、光刻机、分散染料、大消费等板块表现活跃。下跌方面，CPO、存储芯片等概念集体调整。截至收盘，沪指跌1.16%，深成指跌4.52%，创业板指跌7.35%。
中信建投指出，800VDC 供电架构的迭代将起到关键催化作用，因此受益方向涵盖柜内、柜外以及板级电源等环节；华西证券则认为，WAIC 2026 催化超节点共识的形成将推动交换机产业链迎来系统性重估；中信证券认为，AI 驱动半导体产业资本开支上行将开启半导体设备新一轮成长周期。
中信建投指出，800VDC供电架构的迭代将成为供电架构迭代的关键催化剂，因此受益方向涵盖了柜内、柜外以及板级电源等环节。
800VDC strong trend has become the consensus of each AI chip and power enterprises, which becomes the key catalytic factor for the evolution of power supply architecture. The main changes are as follows: (1) outside the cabinet, it turns from AC output to DC output, power density keeps increasing, UPS iterates toward HVDC power rack (sidecar), Panama power supply, SST and other directions; (2) inside the cabinet, PSU power density is improved, and then because of 800V DC entering the cabinet, additional 800V-50V DCDC links need to be added; (3) at the board level, the 50V-12V and 12V-1V DCDC buck links have large equipment usage and obvious value increase.
华西证券：WAIC 2026催化超节点共识，交换机产业链迎来系统性重估
当前市场对AI赛道分歧加剧，海外担忧云厂商阶段性调减算力资本开支以及算力机柜利用率不足引发资产减值；国内担忧大模型商业化落地缓慢，光模块和AI服务器产能过剩挤压企业盈利。考虑近期美联储加息预期降温，相关板块短期有望企稳反弹。长期来看，包括近期Intel带来的CPU涨价，AI底层算力需求具备极强刚性，多模态大模型训练以及各行各业规模化推理带来带宽指数级增长，叠加国内算力网络、5G-A持续集采及高端硬件国产替代，行业中长期订单与盈利增长逻辑扎实。
中信证券：AI驱动半导体产业资本开支上行，半导体设备开启新一轮成长周期
AI is becoming the core driving force behind the current global semiconductor industry cycle, which is pulling the capital expenditures of global wafer fabs into a new round of upward cycle, with advanced logic and advanced memory forming a resonance in capacity expansion. The semiconductor equipment industry is shifting from cyclical recovery to a structural growth phase, with the global semiconductor equipment market size projected to exceed 2900 billion dollars in 2028, and the prosperity of China's semiconductor industry set to benefit from the dual catalysis of AI and domestic substitution, with the market size of China's semiconductor equipment expected to approach 1000 billion dollars in 2028. In this context, it is suggested to focus on two investment lines: 1) domestic equipment leaders with global competitiveness that continuously benefit from the expansion of advanced process and advanced packaging; 2) domestic parts enterprises with continuous promotion of domestic substitution, continuously improving product matrix, and continuous breakthroughs in advanced process verification.
来源：券商晨会精华：AI驱动半导体产业资本开支上行，半导体设备开启新一轮成长周期 | 财联社
