国际清算银行星期二发出警告，称人工智能的蓬勃发展可能会使各国央行更难判断经济状况和设定利率，因为这项技术会同时刺激需求和供给。

这家总部位于巴塞尔为全球各国央行提供咨询的机构在一份关于人工智能经济影响的简报中表示由于人工智能在任何广泛的生产力提升完全显现之前就会对投资贸易和金融市场产生强大的影响因此政策制定者面临着一项异常艰巨的任务

The release of the report comes precisely at the time of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on interest rates. The new chairman Kevin Wass is a typical representative of those who believe that "AI will drive a productivity revival, create space for interest rate cuts and will not trigger inflationary rebounds."

International clearing bank researchers emphasize that artificial intelligence exerts a profound influence on investment, trade, and asset prices, capable of “real-time altering the global economic outlook” and supporting economic growth in an environment of trade frictions and geopolitical shocks.

Researchers claim that the above impacts are now “significantly large and clearly visible”, and may also exacerbate the upward pressure on prices. The expenditure related to US data centers and information technology manufacturing facilities has risen to 0.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); at the same time, the wealth effect brought by the rise in stock prices is boosting household consumption.

The report indicates that the surge in artificial intelligence expenditure financed increasingly by debt has stimulated economic activity and trade growth and driven stock market gains, thereby potentially intensifying near-term inflationary pressures. On the other hand, artificial intelligence may ultimately raise productivity and capacity, expand supply, and help contain inflation.

The core challenge for policymakers therefore lies in the fact that the scale, timing, and distribution of these benefits remain highly uncertain.

Researchers wrote that the strength and timing of these opposing forces remain uncertain, with short-term inflationary effects already appearing while deflationary effects are likely to unfold gradually.

International Clearing Bank further notes that artificial intelligence blurs cyclical signals by simultaneously affecting demand and supply and warns that this could make it complex for central banks to assess potential economic conditions and adjust monetary policies.

A pressing risk is the misjudgment of the strong growth brought by artificial intelligence investments. The heavy investment in data centers, chips and digital infrastructure might be seen as a sign of economic overheating, even though some of the growth reflects the long-term improvement in production potential. Conversely, the increase in productivity may hide potential demand pressures, making the trend of inflation more difficult to interpret.

The Bank for International Settlements also underscored the uneven impact of artificial intelligence on countries and labour markets. Countries that primarily supply semiconductors, computing infrastructure, or artificial intelligence related services may experience stronger growth, whereas others could lag behind. This divergence could result in different inflation and growth trajectories, thereby heightening the complexity of monetary policy in different regions.

此外，金融市场的影响带来了另一项挑战。人工智能带来的乐观情绪推动了股市的快速上涨，创造了财富效应，这可以支撑消费和需求，但也增加了资产价格泡沫的风险。

不过，国际清算银行并未提出政策建议，但表示各国央行需要将暂时的投资繁荣与持久的生产力提高区分开来，从而避免“政策失当”的风险。

来源：暗示美联储？国际清算银行：AI时代通胀趋势难辨，小心政策失当！ | 财联社