全球资本市场遭遇了集体性恐慌，这一天的焦虑几乎全部围绕同一个核心资产展开，那就是AI产业链。7月28日，在美股市场中，费城半导体指数单日重挫近5%，美光科技跌了8.85%，闪迪跌近15%，纳斯达克指数延续了五天连跌的态势，AI行情的核心标的集体承压。亚太市场方面，韩国综合股价指数单日暴跌10.84%，盘中两度触发熔断，创下了2008年金融危机以来最大单日跌幅，三星电子与SK海力士这两大AI存储芯片龙头领跌了全市场。

Valuations along the AI supply chain have collapsed rapidly from Silicon Valley to Seoul. Has the narrative that has driven the AI industry for more than a year come to an end?

This round of adjustments transmitted a clear path with the core always centered around the AI computing power industry chain.

风暴最先从美股科技股内部发酵。进入7月后，纳斯达克指数就已显露疲态，资金从高估值的AI应用、芯片设计标的持续流出。7月28日前夜，存储芯片、光通信板块率先崩盘，直接带崩费城半导体指数，恐慌情绪连夜传导至亚太市场。

28日早盘的韩国股市，几乎是隔夜美股的放大版。作为全球AI存储芯片的核心供给地，SK海力士、三星电子开盘即跌超7%，直接拖拽韩国综合股价指数击穿关键支撑位。由于两大半导体巨头合计权重超过40%，它们的下跌几乎等同于整个市场的下跌，指数很快触发熔断机制。

Panic did not stop at the semiconductors. Forced by the liquidation pressure of leveraged funds, the decline spread rapidly from the AI core assets to the entire market. As of the close, the Korean market lost more than one trillion dollars in market capitalization in a single day, with more than 1.2 million retail accounts receiving margin calls, and tens of thousands of leveraged accounts having their capital completely wiped out within the day.

This was a precise targeted sell-off focused on AI valuations. The sectors that suffered the deepest losses were precisely those that had posted the largest gains over the past six months and had seen their AI narrative pricing become most fully priced in. The markets that endured the most severe declines were precisely those that depended most heavily on the industry sentiment of the AI sector and had piled on the most leverage.

All things are pointing to one single root cause: the market’s optimistic narrative surrounding the AI industry is undergoing a shift.

2026年上半年，以高带宽内存芯片为代表的算力硬件需求持续爆发，三星和SK海力士等企业的财报连续超预期，行业景气度得到了实打实的业绩验证。

为此，市场逐步构建出一套完整的叙事逻辑，大模型迭代永无止境，算力需求永远增长，而高端芯片供给扩张存在产能壁垒，因此算力长期稀缺是确定性趋势，芯片龙头的业绩高增长可以持续很多年。

This logic has pushed up the valuations of companies like NVIDIA and Micron in the US stock market and directly created a market-wide leveraged bull market in Korea. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index rose steadily from around 4000 points at the beginning of the year to a historical peak of 9385 points, achieving gains exceeding 130 percent over the half year and becoming one of the top-performing major markets globally.

But the element that has driven the Korean technology narrative to its extreme is the active opening of leveraged tools by the regulatory authorities. On May 27, the Korea Exchange approved the listing of the first 16 double-leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, to enable citizens to share the dividends of the AI industry. Following the product launch, these ETFs were rapidly snapped up by retail investors, with their scale surging from 3 billion dollars within a month to 9.1 billion dollars. A large number of young people have mobilized capital for market entry through credit loans and consumer loans, treating the AI industry narrative as a deterministic opportunity for rapid wealth acquisition.

But while retail investors were crazily adding positions in their AI faith, foreign investors quietly withdrew. During the first half of 2026, foreign investors cumulatively net sold 1.483 trillion Korean won (approximately 108 billion US dollars) from the Korean stock market, setting a record for the highest net outflows in a half-year period in 25 years.

Vulnerable structure formed. Foreign investors cashed out at the narrative peak. Retail investors absorbed the shares using leverage funds. This arrangement supported the final prosperity.

被击穿的“永稀缺”逻辑

7月以来发布的两则公开消息，成了撬动AI叙事根基的第一道裂缝。

在此之前AI行情的核心定价基石是算力供给永远跟不上需求的稀缺性信仰Meta宣布对外开放富余AI算力将闲置的AI计算能力以云服务形式对外出售第一次让市场意识到头部云厂商的算力并非全面紧缺行业供给缺口远没有此前渲染的那般极端如果连Meta这样的AI巨头都有闲置算力对外出售那么全行业的资本开支扩张节奏很可能会慢于预期

第二则消息进一步动摇了需求端的真实性。英伟达被曝为OpenAI数据中心项目提供约2500亿美元融资担保，让市场开始重新审视AI芯片订单的含金量：如果下游客户需要上游厂商垫资才能完成采购，那么真实的终端需求强度，或许远不及订单数据体现的那般强劲。

市场默认的“需求无限、供给不足”的完美叙事被直接击穿。市场定价逻辑随之快速逆转，从愿意为长期增长支付高估值转向严苛地考核当下的盈利兑现能力。

此前仅凭AI概念就能获得估值溢价的标的，开始面临价值重估，估值泡沫从产业链边缘向核心逐步破裂。惠誉在最新报告中明确警示，AI热潮估值回调已成为当前全球信用市场的核心风险。

The worsening came from the shift in expectations for the Federal Reserve monetary policy. On the eve of the interest rate decision scheduled for July 30, the market rapidly cooled on expectations for rate cuts, with the probability of rate hikes continuing to rise. As of July 28, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July had risen to 36.3 percent, and the cumulative probability of hikes in September exceeded 80 percent. The expectation of tighter liquidity further suppressed the pricing space for high-valuation growth stocks, becoming another straw that broke the back of the AI rally.

South Korea’s stock market crash serves as an extreme sample of the AI narrative collapse. While the AI valuation correction followed a similar path, the South Korean stock market experienced a decline that was several times more severe than that of the US market, fundamentally because it acted as the most extreme carrier of this round of AI narrative.

The extreme single-industry structure of the Korean stock market has become evident. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together accounted for more than 40 percent of the KOSPI weighting, with storage chips serving as the sole growth narrative for the market. The AI storage boom logic came under doubt, and the entire market then lost its valuation support.

杠杆资金极致放大。2倍杠杆ETF具备每日再平衡机制，在股价下跌时被动减持的特性与融资账户强制平仓形成共振，从而催生股价下跌导致追保、强制平仓以及股价进一步下跌的死亡螺旋。截至7月28日收盘，韩国券商累计强制平仓金额达2.92万亿韩元，数十万账户单日爆仓。

监管政策急转弯。行情上涨期放任杠杆产品规模扩张，市场过热后又突然收紧——7月中旬暂停杠杆ETF新品上市，上调保证金要求，下旬将3000万韩元现金门槛新规提前至7月31日生效且仅认可现金担保，直接掐断增量资金，加速存量杠杆出清，刺破了本就脆弱的AI叙事泡沫。

The Korean stock market crash serves as the most extreme manifestation of the global AI valuation correction, with the adjustment script of narrative loosening plus leveraged clearing unfolding in its most devastating form.

AI产业叙事结束了吗？

黑色星期二过后，市场所最为关心的核心问题便在于：AI产业的故事是否已经讲完了？

The answer is no, but it is not optimistic either. A more precise statement would be that the narrative bubble on the capital side has already collapsed, but the genuine narrative on the industrial side remains far from over.

一方面，靠预期、靠概念、靠宏大叙事支撑的市梦率行情，确实已经走到了尽头，过去一年多市场愿意为所有和AI沾边的企业支付估值溢价，默认所有参与者都能分到产业红利，但经过本次调整后AI行情正式进入业绩验证期，叙事的门槛会大幅提高，只有真正能把算力投入转化为营收、转化为利润、转化为现金流的企业才能继续获得资金青睐，而那些只会讲故事、没有实质业务落地的标的会持续被市场抛弃。

另一方面，AI技术迭代和产业渗透的长期趋势，并没有因为一次股市调整而改变。大模型的升级不会停止，各行各业的数字化、智能化转型仍在推进，高端算力芯片、存储硬件的长期需求依然有坚实的产业基础。

此前市场的问题，从来不是AI没有价值，而是把未来三五年的价值，提前透支到了当下的股价里。

暴跌并非否定AI的产业价值，而是对过度乐观的估值进行了一次纠偏。

换句话说，AI叙事没有结束，只是换了一个剧本。从“人人都能分一杯羹”的普惠式炒作切换到“剩者为王”的基本面分化，从“算力永远稀缺”的线性外推切换到“供需动态平衡”的周期视角。

But in the short term, the repair of market sentiment will still need to wait for two key signals: the first is the policy guidance in the Federal Reserve July interest rate decision, which clearly indicates the final direction of liquidity; the second is the earnings guidance of US tech giants, which verifies the real strength of AI demand.

放在更长的周期里看，这场“黑色星期二”更像一场迟到的价值回归。AI产业的长期叙事依然成立，但资本市场的价格，终究要回到基本面的地心引力之上。

来源：全球资本市场遭遇黑色星期二，AI产业叙事迎来终局了吗？ | 中国能源网